Projections and Predictions (Total 1279516 Papers Found)

The latest report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts a 1.4–5.8 °C average increase in the global surface temperature over the period 1990 to 2100 (ref. 1). These estimates of future warming are greater than earlier projections, which is partly due to incorporation of a positive feedback. This feedback results from further release of greenhouse gases from terrestrial ecosystems in response to climatic warming. The feedback mechanism is usually based on the assum ...
The need for climate change information at the regional-to-local scale is one of the central issues within the global change debate. Such information is necessary in order to assess the impacts of climate change on human and natural systems and to develop suitable adaptation and mitigation strategies at the national level. The end-user and policy-making communities have long sought reliable regionaland local-scale projections to provide a solid basis for guiding response options. ...
Out-of-sample tests of forecast performance depend on how a given data set is split into estimation and evaluation periods, yet no guidance exists on how to choose the split point. Empirical forecast evaluation results can therefore be difficult to interpret, particularly when several values of the split point might have been considered. When the sample split is viewed as a choice variable, rather than being fixed ex ante, we show that very large size distortions can occur for conventional tests ...
BACKGROUND Climate influences dengue ecology by affecting vector dynamics, agent development, and mosquito/human interactions. Although these relationships are known, the impact climate change will have on transmission is unclear. Climate-driven statistical and process-based models are being used to refine our knowledge of these relationships and predict the effects of projected climate change on dengue fever occurrence, but results have been inconsistent. OBJECTIVE We sought to identify major ...
OBJECTIVE To project the impact of population aging on total U.S. health care per capita costs from 2000 to 2050 and for the range of clinical areas defined by Major Practice Categories (MPCs). DATA SOURCES Secondary data: HealthPartners health plan administrative data; U.S. Census Bureau population projections 2000-2050; and MEPS 2001 health care annual per capita costs. STUDY DESIGN We calculate MPC-specific age and gender per capita cost rates using cross-sectional data for 2002-2003 and ...
The increasing municipal solid waste (MSW) generation along with the high fraction of organic waste and a common disposal of open dumping is the current scenario in many areas in Thailand. As a response to this problem, the country's Pollution Control Department (PCD) aims to reduce the MSW generation rate to less than 1 kg/capita/day, increase the collection efficiency, and improve the recovery of recyclables. For many years, more than 60% of the solid waste disposal system in Thailand has been ...
The effects of a variety of developmental manipulations on the distribution of the callosal pathway to visual cortex were examined by using the Fink Heimer technique in adult rats. First, the callosal projections in albino and pigmented rats were compared and found to be similar. The callosal pathway was limited in area 17 to a region adjoining its lateral border with area 18a. Second, dark-reared rats were found to have normal callosal projections. Third, rats bilaterally enucleated at birth an ...
This paper estimates location-specific soil salinity in coastal Bangladesh for 2050. The analysis was conducted in two stages: First, changes in soil salinity for the period 2001-2009 were assessed using information recorded at 41 soil monitoring stations by the Soil Research Development Institute. Using these data, a spatial econometric model was estimated linking soil salinity with the salinity of nearby rivers, land elevation, temperature, and rainfall. Second, future soil salinity for 69 coa ...
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Both high rates of labor force growth and large dependency ratios are forecast in this paper for the countries of Latin America in the 1990s. The author concludes that "population and employment problems must be given high priority in bilateral negotiations and/or with international organizations when deciding upon structural adjustment strategies." (SUMMARY IN ENG) ...
This paper compares the quality of forecasts from DSGE models with and without fi-nancial frictions. We find that accounting for financial market imperfections does not result in a uniform improvement in the accuracy of point forecasts during non-crisis times while the average quality of density forecast even deteriorates. In contrast, adding frictions in the housing market proves very helpful during the times of financial turmoil, overperforming both the frictionless benchmark and the alternati ...
With the development of electric market reform, short-term load forecasting (STLF) has been paid more and more attention. This paper presented a hybrid model to integrated information entropy and data mining theory with neural network to establish a new short-term load forecasting model. First, information entropy theory is used to select relevant ones from all influential factors; the results are used as inputs of neural network. Secondly, according to the features of power load, the typical hi ...
  • Chunmei Liu,
  • 2009 International Conference on Management and Service Science
  • 2009
China's gold futures have listed in Shanghai Finance Futures Exchange in January 2008.The currency and financial attributes makes the gold futures more important than the general commodity futures. So the gold futures’ research has important theoretical and practical significance. By using genetic algorithms (GA) to optimize the value of linking weight of the BP neural network ,and then constructing the genetic algorithm BP neural network(GA-BP) forecasting model, selecting the New York Future ...
Recently, the compressed sensing (CS) based iterative reconstruction method has received attention because of its ability to reconstruct cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) images with good quality using sparsely sampled or noisy projections, thus enabling dose reduction. However, some challenges remain. In particular, there is always a tradeoff between image resolution and noise/streak artifact reduction based on the amount of regularization weighting that is applied uniformly across the CBCT ...
Air quality forecasting is an important issue in environmental research, due to the effects that air pollutants have on population health. To deal with this topic, in this work an integrated modelling system has been developed to forecast daily maximum eight hours ozone concentrations and daily mean PM10 concentrations, up to two days in advance, over an urban area. The presented approach involves two steps. In the first step, artificial neural networks are identified and applied to get point-wi ...
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Problem statement: Most of Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models that used for forecasting seasonal time series are multiplicative SARIMA models. These models assume that there is a significant parameter as a result of multiplication between non-seasonal and seasonal parameters without testing by certain statistical test. Moreover, most popular statistical software such as MINITAB and SPSS only has facility to fit a multiplicative model. The aim of this research is to ...
Estimates of India’s current stocks of fissile material holdings are presented, along with projections of their future production. India’s plutonium stocks (weapon-grade and reactor-grade) are first calculated in spent fuel form. Then different efficiency scenarios for India’s reprocessing plants are assumed to estimate how much of this plutonium is likely to have been separated. Similarly the best possible estimates of Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) production are inferred from publicly av ...
OBJECTIVE We assessed whether asymptomatic ovarian abnormalities detected on ultrasonography in postmenopausal women are precursors to ovarian cancer. STUDY DESIGN We compared the transvaginal ultrasonographic findings from the initial examination of 20,000 postmenopausal women enrolled to date in an ongoing randomized trial of cancer screening with data on the established risk factors for ovarian cancer obtained from self-administered questionnaires. We distinguished cysts with the suggestive ...
Forecasting stock returns and bond yields is an important goal of investment management. However, if a random walk process describes stock returns and bond yields, then much of the efforts devoted to forecasting stock returns and bond yields are of questionable value. Research by Fama and French (1996) and others support the hypothesis that stock returns do not follow a pure random walk process. Further support for returns not following a pure random walk is offered by Fleming and Remolona (1997 ...
Studies of allowable (safe) length of service in occuptions of mining transport enterprise "Kostanaiskie mineral" JSC were conducted to forecast occurrence of dust lung diseases in workers exposed to chrysotile-asbestos dust. To calculate allowable length of service, the authors used values of average shift concentration of chrysotile-asbestos dust. Based on the calculated data of the allowable length of service in chrysotile-asbestos production, the authors forecasted course of dust lung diseas ...
High-resolution explicit forecasts using the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) of the 15–16 June 2002 mesoscale convective system (MCS) that occurred over the U.S. central and southern plains during the International H2O Project (IHOP_2002) field experiment period are performed. The forecasts are designed to investigate the impact of mesoscale and convective-scale data on the initialization and prediction of an organized convective system. Specifically, the forecasts test the impact o ...
  • Xiaochen Li,
  • 2013 Third International Conference on Intelligent System Design and Engineering Applications
  • 2013
Nowadays, most of the of transportation demand forecast are using Brown exponential smoothing which is a kind of the time series prediction methods. But in practical situation, Brown exponential smoothing is greatly influenced by data, when the data is inappropriate value. The large deviation and poor accuracy of the predicted value will appeared. Through the research of Holt exponential smoothing forecast model, according to the case analysis, this article makes a compare with Brown exponential ...
Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) is one of the most widely used remote sensing modalities, providing images for a variety of applications including those in defense, environmental science, and weather forecasting. However, conventionally formed SAR imagery from undersampled observed data, arising in several emerging applications and sensing scenarios, suffers from artifacts that might limit effective use of such imagery in remote sensing applications. Recently, sparsity-driven SAR imaging has emer ...
Ninety percents energy and more than eighty percents industrial raw materials came from mineral resources at present. In fact, the exploitation of mineral resource consumes two resources: mineral resources and environmental resources. Opencast mining of resources particularly leads to great damage on ecological environment. This paper selected Xiangning County of Shanxi Province as the study area and regarded remote sensing images at three phases of 1990, 1999 and 2007 as the main part of data s ...
This study aims at finding out the impact of marketing mix of product life cycle on business performance and estimating the influence of marketing mix of product life cycle on business performance. Kotler (2000) introduced a 4 stage PLC for consumer products. This same model is also adopted by researcher. But, this study is different from the Kotler’s model. This study considers marketing mix and business performance during the different stages of PLC. Researcher uses a single case of Royal Ha ...
Projections indicate that the older American population will become more racially diverse in the future. Therefore, eliminating health disparities among older adults should be a public health priority. Using data from the 1999-2002 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, we examined the relationship between obesity, measured by BMI and waist circumference, and gait speed, a performance-based measure of physical function, in 2,285 older adults (≥60 y) in order to determine whether thi ...
Adjuvant radiotherapy after modified radical mastectomy and breast-conserving surgery for early-stage invasive breast cancer substantially reduces the risk of locoregional failure and is evidence-based. Using traditional clinical and pathological factors, patients can be classified into subgroups by the risk of locoregional recurrence. In the high-risk groups the absolute benefit of irradiation is larger. However, the patients are over-treated in every subgroup. Substantial proportion of the pat ...
This article explores the forecasting accuracy of the "random walk" and other models of exchange rate behavior. Under present conditions of floating exchange rates, it is argued, anticipations of future demand and supply determine fluctuations in exchange rates. The authors present results consistent with the notion that, for the world's major currencies, the foreign exchange market is an "efficient market" and exchange rate forecasting is not profitable. ...
To facilitate flood forecasting (FF), a novel method based on the nonlinear computational units cascaded (NCUC) model is proposed in this paper. The proposed method is named the NCUC-FF method. The NCUC-FF method overcomes the shortcomings of two types of methods, respectively, based on the artificial neural networks and the conventional rainfall–runoff models. The NCUC-FF method uses only the rainfall records as input to produce accurate forecasts of runoff, and it has an automated calibratio ...
Optimal smoothers enable the use of future observations to estimate the state of a dynamical system. In this paper, a square-root smoother algorithm is presented, extended from the Singular Evolutive Extended Kalman (SEEK) filter, a square-root Kalman filter routinely used for ocean data assimilation. With this filter algorithm, the smoother extension appears almost cost-free. A modified algorithm implementing a particular parameterization of model error is also described. The smoother is applie ...
We give a method for determining a set of images which are consistent with measured projections data and error bounds on the projections noise. The error bounds can account for both statistical noise uncertainty and model uncertainty, e.g. due to a mismodeled or un-calibrated system matrix. If one knows the statistical distribution of the projections errors, then one can select the error bounds to give a consistency set which is a (1 ?)% conndence region on the true image given the measured data ...
Development of requirements for a data bank for natural media as a system of intercorrelated parameters to estimate system states are determined. The problems of functional agreement between experimental and calculation methods are analysed when organizing the ecological monitoring. The methods of forming the environmental specimen bank to estimate and forecast radioactive contamination and exposure dose are considered to be exemplified by the peculiarities of the spatial distribution of radioac ...
In recent years, the phase-space reconstruction method has usually been used for mid- and long-term runoff predictions. However, the traditional phase-space reconstruction method is still needs to be improved. Using the genetic algorithm to improve the phase-space reconstruction method, a new nonlinear model of monthly runoff is constructed. The new model does not rely heavily on embedding dimensions. Recognizing that the rainfall-runoff process is complex, affected by a number of factors, more ...
The importance of accurately estimating crop water requirement for irrigation forecast and agricultural water management has been widely recognized. Although it has been broadly adopted to determine crop evapotranspiration (ETc) via meteorological data and crop coefficient, most of the data in whether forecast are qualitative rather than quantitative except air temperature. Therefore, in this study, how to estimate ETc precisely only using air temperature data in forecast was explored, the accur ...
Climate change affects the cryosphere in a strong way. In 2012 the IPCC (IPCC, 2012) concluded that there is high confidence that changes in heat waves, glacial retreat and/or permafrost degradation will have a strong effect on high mountain phenomena such as slope instabilities, mass movements and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF). The overall frequency of debris flows may decrease in absolute terms, but the magnitude of events may increase. This conclusion was derived from an analysis of deb ...
Objective. To evaluate the use of routine MR imaging sequences in detecting and characterizing secondary reactive synovitis of the knee joint using arthroscopy as the standard of reference. Design and patients. Fifty consecutive patients with a history of knee pain who were referred for MR imaging and subsequently underwent arthroscopy of the knee comprised the study group. MR images were evaluated for the presence and appearance of synovitis reflected in synovial thickening and irregularity. Sy ...
The underwater environment is often complex and highly variable in space and time, making it difficult to model the detection performance of anti-submarine warfare (ASW) sonar systems. Furthermore, the environment can result in complex active sonar data displays that are difficult to interpret. The performance of the sonar system can be enhanced by understanding and exploiting knowledge about the underwater environment. This paper illustrates how relevant and timely environmental data from the B ...
[1] In this paper, by using the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) technique monthly zonal wind indices over Tibetan Plateau (25 N–45 N, 75–105 E) (TP) at 200 hPa have been constructed for the period 1948–2006. These indices are referred as Tibetan Zonal Wind Index (TZWI). The relationship between the TZWI and Indian summer monsoon rainfall on monthly basis has been studied by the correlation analysis. From the analysis, it is observed that pre-monsoon months (April and May) of TZWI show t ...
An indirect way of reconstructing the coordinates of points on the surface of a 3D object by its planar parallel projections is proposed. The approach is based on the substitution of the object by another (virtual) object, for which this operation can be carried out simply, whereas the correctness of the obtained results is controlled. The specificities of obtaining a mathematical model of reconstructed objects with a polyhedral shape, the issues of normalization of the angular discrepancies bet ...
Eagle's syndrome can produce symptoms that may be easily confused with those resulting from wearing a prosthetic restoration. The symptoms resulting from elongated styloid processes and methods of diagnosis and treatment of these processes were described. A patient with Eagle's syndrome has been presented. The symptoms were initially suspected to be due to an ill-fitting mandibular removable partial denture. Further clinical and radiographic examination led to the diagnosis of Eagle's syndrome, ...
[1] Sea level rise (SLR) is an inescapable consequence of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, with potentially harmful effects on human populations in coastal and island regions. Observational evidence indicates that global sea level has risen in the 20th century, and climate models project an acceleration of this trend in the coming decades. Here we analyze rates of future SLR on regional scales in a 40-member ensemble of climate change projections with the Community Climate System Model ...
The author summarizes the 1992 update of the official population projection to the year 2030 for the Netherlands and compares it with the forecast made in 1991. A rise in life expectancy is anticipated. The odds are two to one that population size in 2030 will be between 16.4 million and 18.2 million." (SUMMARY IN ENG) ...
BACKGROUND Coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates have been decreasing in Iceland since the 1980s, largely reflecting improvements in cardiovascular risk factors. The purpose of this study was to predict future CHD mortality in Iceland based on potential risk factor trends. METHODS AND FINDINGS The previously validated IMPACT model was used to predict changes in CHD mortality between 2010 and 2040 among the projected population of Iceland aged 25-74. Calculations were based on combining: ...
Volume–area scaling is a common tool for deriving future volume evolutions of valley glaciers and their contribution to sea-level rise. We analyze the performance of scaling relationships for deriving volume projections in comparison to projections from a one-dimensional ice-flow model. The model is calibrated for six glaciers (Nigardsbreen, Rhonegletscher, South Cascade Glacier, Sofiyskiy glacier, midre Lovénbreen and Abramov glacier). Volume evolutions forced by different hypothetical mass- ...
The asymmetric moving average model (asMA) is extended to allow for asymmetric quadratic conditional heteroskedasticity (asQGARCH). The asymmetric parametrization of the conditional variance encompasses the quadratic GARCH model of Sentana (1995). We introduce a framework for testing asymmetries in the conditional mean and the conditional variance, separately or jointly. Some of the new model's moment properties are also derived. Empirical results are given for the daily returns of the composite ...
This paper presents an investigation on alternative approaches to the providing of uncertainty estimates associated to point predictions of wind generation. Focus is given to skill forecasts in the form of prediction risk indices, aiming at giving a comprehensive signal on the expected level of forecast uncertainty. Ensemble predictions of wind generation are used as input. A proposal for the definition of prediction risk indices is given. Such skill forecasts are based on the dispersion of ense ...